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Will showers and storms return for Labor Day?

Coverage of rain could climb Monday + we are watching the tropics for enhanced rain chances later this week
Published: Sep. 4, 2021 at 5:43 PM CDT|Updated: Sep. 5, 2021 at 8:38 PM CDT
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - After a nice weekend, could the forecast be trending wetter for Labor Day? The answer, yes... but it won’t be to the point where you would need to cancel your outdoor plans. Things do start to change a bit as we head into Monday. We will see moisture levels increase, and this will make it feel muggy again; it will also provide us with a chance of afternoon and evening showers and storms.

We don’t have a lot of rain in the forecast, but expect at least some scattered rain to pop during the peak heating of the day Monday,

The chance for showers and thunderstorms rises a bit on Tuesday to around 40%. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s in most places.

A 30% chance of showers and storms exists on Labor Day.
A 30% chance of showers and storms exists on Labor Day.(WSFA 12 News)

Then our eyes turn to what could be a weak tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico heading this way. There is a lot of model disagreement on what happens with a disturbance down over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula... what we do know is it could develop into a weak system.

The National Hurricane Center has given it a 30% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression.

A weak system could form in the Gulf heading into next week. This will drive our upcoming rain...
A weak system could form in the Gulf heading into next week. This will drive our upcoming rain chances and coverage.(WSFA 12 News)

If it does wind up developing, it would remain either a depression or weak tropical storm at best as it heads toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Regardless of whether or not it develops into a system, our rain chances and coverage likely hinge on where exactly the disturbance goes Wednesday and beyond. Again, there’s quite a bit of spread among the long-range forecast models right now.

Coverage of rain starts to climb as we head into this new week!
Coverage of rain starts to climb as we head into this new week!(WSFA 12 News)

We do think Wednesday and Wednesday night have a pretty good rain and storm threat. Beyond that, though, things are much less certain as some models show the system bringing rain chances through Saturday while other models get rid of it by Thursday morning.

With this disagreement in mind, we’ve introduced a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday to Saturday. Just know these rain chances will change as we get closer!

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